A more balanced grass-seed market demands early planning

It’s not all doom and gloom in the grass-seed market. While the news focused on the bad weather – an unusually wet spring across central and northern Europe, and extreme heat and drought in the south – we saw numerous bright spots in this challenging market.

The turf market bounces back

The professional turf market had a good 23/24 season, characterised by sustained high demand. While major sporting events, such as the European Football Championships in Germany and the Paris Olympics, played a role, the resurgence was broader. Local governments and sod producers, which have both cut back in recent years, showed a strong rebound in 2024. House building has also picked up in many countries, fuelling demand from gardeners.

Our 4turf^® concept continues its string of successes. Despite a wet spring across much of Europe, demand for our tetraploid ryegrasses was robust: nearly all 4turf^® varieties from the 2023 crop were sold out. The bad weather – rain across central and northern Europe, and extreme heat in the south – resulted in a greater focus on disease-resistant varieties in order to future proof turf areas. As a result, many of our disease-resistant turf varieties were sold out in spring.

In the UK, the Sustainable Farming Incentive had a strong impact. During the summer of 2024, the scheme boosted demand for numerous species, including grass seed. And in central European countries (Czech Republic and Hungary especially), there was a significant jump in forage demand.

An eventful market ready for greater dynamism and resilience

The complex season has highlighted the resilience and strength of the market. While some seed traders saw the 23/24 season as both challenging and uneventful, others spotted vital shifts and opportunities for the future. Although the industry hasn’t yet managed to cut stocks back to normal levels, the picture is far from bleak. Yes, we know that demand in the forage and consumer segments never reached the levels we hoped for, but it has unlocked fresh potential and created room for growth. Throughout the value chain, sales were satisfactory.

Even though stocks generally remain high, various species and varieties have been in short supply since last season – something not seen in recent years. Across the European market, demand for annuals, red clover, crimson clover and alfalfa is now high. And species such as cocksfoot and tall fescue are also finding their balance. In the turfgrass sector, the top species and higher-quality varieties were sold out quickly, indicating a strong demand that we expect to persist.

While some seed traders had to ease back in the face of price pressure, the season has also revealed exciting prospects. Prices for sought-after seed stocks, such as annuals, cocksfoot, red clover, alfalfa and premium turf varieties, are on the rise. Looking ahead, these high-quality seeds should be viewed far more optimistically in terms of price and market potential.

In many ways, we believe this season’s challenges pave the way for a more dynamic and resilient market – one in which high-quality and in-demand varieties continue to drive growth.

Crop update – a season of shifts and opportunities

The 2024 European grass-seed harvest is likely to be smaller than usual. Farmers in Denmark and the Netherlands have devoted the least amount of land in many years to grass-seed multiplication. Total annual production will be around 50,000 tonnes below a typical year, and roughly 100,000 tonnes below the bumper 2021 and 2022 harvests that boosted European stocks.

The cost of grass-seed production remains high as the prices of fertiliser, plant protection products and energy rise, and as salaries and interest rates increase. At the same time, growers continue to step back from grass-seed production as the economics of alternative crops become more attractive.

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect production to remain low across Europe, North America and New Zealand, leading to a continued tight supply. This too presents the grass-seed market with an opportunity for creating value.

European production:

• Denmark: Despite a wet and late spring, yields in Denmark for tall fescue and perennial ryegrass were slightly above normal. At the same time, excessive rainfall took red fescue yields below average. White clover continued to struggle with a poor pollination season and heavy rain during harvest. Yields were 40% below normal. A reduction in multiplication areas of 20% (compared to 2023) further tightened supply.
• Netherlands: Perennial ryegrass had close-to-normal yields, whereas tall fescue yields were 35% below average. The Dutch grass-seed area is the lowest it has been in years.
• Other European countries: The harvest yields in most other seed-producing countries were close to, or slightly below, normal. Seed multiplication areas were down by an average of 15% compared to last year.
• Alfalfa: In France and other key production areas, alfalfa yields have been disappointing.

North American production:

The 2024 season in North America was much better than last year. Many growers are reporting grass-seed yields up by 15% to 20% above normal for tall fescue and perennial ryegrass. Annual ryegrass yields were particularly high – around 25% above average. However, alfalfa yields in the US and Canada have fallen short at 10% below normal.

Outlook:

A combination of reduced European harvests and a global shrinking of production areas signals a tightening market for grass seed. While 2024 brought its share of challenges – especially in terms of weather and production costs – the increasing scarcity of certain varieties, combined with strong demand, is likely to drive up prices. For traders and producers, a tight market is likely to create many new opportunities.

Take action now to secure your supply

To take full advantage of this tight, value-driven market, you need to be one step ahead – and to start planning right now. Reach out to us at the Euroseeds congress. We’ll be there in Copenhagen from 13 to 16 October, ready to provide you with the latest market intelligence – and to work with you to ensure you have the seeds you need for the coming season. Don't leave seed supply to chance – talk to us in Copenhagen.

And if you can’t make it to the Euroseeds congress, contact your local DLF sales representative.