A robust spring for the era of tariffs and climate change
In the face of global uncertainty, the grass-seed market is surprisingly optimistic. With production down and spring sales exceeding expectations, a market rebalance is underway. So how do you deal with a rapidly tightening market? Our spring market report helps you plot your way forward.
In an uncertain world, spring starts strong
We're off to a dynamic and encouraging start this spring. Activity across the business has picked up pace, and momentum is building earlier than expected. In Europe, seasonal demand is exceeding forecasts, driven by a renewed energy in consumer markets. This strong start provides a solid foundation for the months ahead.
Navigating a complex global landscape
We all know that the world faces considerable geopolitical and environmental challenges. Conflicts in various regions, political instability, an unpredictable global trade environment, and the urgent need to address climate change are shaping the conditions in which we operate.
These factors create a fast-moving and sometimes uncertain landscape. While we can’t predict every development, DLF’s global presence gives us valuable insights into the trends and shifts impacting the grass-seed industry. Our broad, worldwide network and close relationships with partners enable us to stay alert, adapt quickly, and provide informed guidance.
If you have questions or need support in navigating any of these developments, our team is always here to help.
Balancing availability and demand
In recent years, seed availability reached unusually high levels, driven by global optimism in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The surge in production meant that only a few species experienced shortages, but it also led to a clear imbalance between supply and actual market demand.
Today, we’re witnessing a shift. Supply from first-hand producers has been more limited over the last two seasons, while demand has returned to more typical levels when measured against a five-year average. This rebalancing has brought about a healthier market dynamic, but it also means that availability is tightening.
The impact is already visible. Several species and varieties have sold out even before the spring season has fully taken off. Notable examples include cocksfoot, white clover, and red clover. Looking ahead, we expect this trend to continue into the next season, affecting crop 2025. This tightening of supply underlines the importance of careful planning and early engagement. Our teams are ready to help you manage these shifts and secure the varieties you need.
Forage segment: strong performance in shifting conditions
The forage segment continues to perform strongly. International milk prices remain high, supporting steady demand from the dairy sector. At the same time, climate change is playing an increasing role in shaping customer needs, particularly driving demand for flexible, fast-growing forage solutions.
In response to more extreme weather patterns, we’re seeing a notable shift towards annual species, especially Westerwold, Italian, and hybrid ryegrass. These species offer the rapid growth which utilizes available nutrients while conditions are still favorable. However, securing sufficient production areas for these species remains a challenge. Demand has risen sharply, driven by reduced reliance on perennials and ongoing climate pressures. This has led to significant price increases for European-grown crops for both production costs and market pricing. Within this segment, we offer DLF festulolium, a forage grass with the combined robustness of a tall fescue and an Italian ryegrass, and which produces a high yield in challenging conditions.
Legume demand is also on the rise. Our key offerings – DLF Alfalfa, red clover, and the crimson clover variety, ROKALI – continue to attract high interest. But supply remains limited, reflecting both strong uptake and tighter availability in the market.
Throughout the twists and turns of the forage market, we remain committed to delivering the quality and reliability our partners expect, while actively addressing market and climate challenges through innovation and global coordination.
Turf segment: stability and renewed confidence
The professional turf segment continues to show strong, stable demand; it remains a reliable cornerstone of our business. Within this market, interest in our 4turf® varieties continues to grow as buyers recognise how well they match today’s performance requirements. Their faster germination, improved disease resistance, and strong tolerance to drought make them well-suited for modern turf management under increasing climatic pressure.
In the consumer segment, we’re also seeing encouraging signs of recovery. After a period of lower activity following the COVID years, demand has gradually returned to pre-pandemic levels. Early season orders suggest that confidence is returning among retailers, with order volumes showing steady year-on-year growth. This points to a healthier and more optimistic retail environment.
Grass-seed production remains at a low level
Crop 2024 stands out as the smallest grass-seed harvest for many years. Early indicators now show that crop 2025 is following a similar path. Hectares planned for production remain unchanged from last year, pointing to another relatively small harvest in the coming season.
While the stock situation across the seed business is gradually improving, the pace is slower than many would hope. That said, we are seeing signs of better alignment between supply and demand. However, there are still cases of resale activity, often driven by efforts to clear older stocks from crop years 2022 and 2023. These stem from concerns around declining germination quality. A notable example is red fescue, where older inventories are still moving through the market.
Looking ahead, the continued decline in production means that availability will tighten further in the coming year. A growing number of species and varieties are falling into short supply. While crop 2026 is expected to bring a slight increase in production, it’s unlikely to fully cover the expected shortages.
Planning and early procurement are key for the year ahead. Speak to us because we’re committed to helping you secure the right products at the right time.
Prices at a turning point in the market
Over the past two years, grass-seed prices in the wholesale market have been under pressure, largely due to an imbalance between supply and demand. However, recent trends indicate that the bottom has been reached, and prices are beginning to recover.
This upward movement is both expected and necessary. As seed availability tightens, new production must be initiated to meet future demand. For this to happen, price levels must once again become attractive to growers.
In recent years, the reduction in grass-seed production has led many farmers to shift to more profitable or lower-risk crops. This shift has created increased competition for land and resources, making it more challenging to secure sufficient areas for grass-seed production. As a result, the cost of establishing new crops is rising.
From climate shifts to tariffs and seasonal swings, things can change quickly in the world of grass seed. In this forecast, we've done our best to give you the most up-to-date insights.
To stay ahead and plan effectively for the seasons to come, speak to your sales contact. We’d love to talk about how we can support your needs in a changing market.